NATO 2% GDP: Defence Surge

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

$33.40B CAD

Fiscal Impact

Medium-term (2–5 years)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 33

Continuum Entry

Overview

Canada finally meets NATO's 2% GDP commitment, doubling defence spending to $64B. The second-richest lever (11 edges): defence_spending -> nato_contribution_pct (+0.7, immediate) + nato_target_gap (-, immediate) + budgetary_balance (-, immediate) + federal_spending (immediate) + defence_industrial_benefit (d2) + CAF_personnel (d4) + military_readiness (d4) + defence_employment (d4) + innovation_index (d8) + arctic_sovereignty (d8) + procurement_backlog (d8). Guns vs butter in real time.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 33). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: National Defence | Proposal ID: 84 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under National Defence. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]