NORAD Arctic Modernization: $3B

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

$1.10B CAD

Fiscal Impact

Medium-term (2–5 years)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 51

Continuum Entry

Overview

North Warning System replacement, polar over-the-horizon radar, and undersea surveillance capabilities. Chain: norad_modernization_spending -> defence_spending (+0.06, immediate). NORAD feeds into the broader defence spending lever, which then ripples into 11 downstream variables. A small lever that amplifies through the defence cascade.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 51). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: National Defence | Proposal ID: 126 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under National Defence. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]