Alberta Energy Dual Pivot: TMX + Renewables

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

Revenue-neutral

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

+$9.2B CAD

34 variables affected across the causal graph

No implementation cost

∞

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Alberta Nominal GDP+$3.1B CAD

Business Investment Growth+$2.0B CAD

Consumer Spending Growth+$750M CAD

Goods and Services Tax (GST)+$306M CAD

Corporate Income Tax+$269M CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Not specified

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 1

Continuum Entry

Overview

TMX expansion ramps to 95% utilization as shippers fill capacity. Simultaneously, Alberta accelerates renewable investment to $4B/year (from $2.5B), driven by federal ITC and provincial incentives. Tests the dual-track thesis: fossil export + domestic decarbonization.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 1). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Energy | Proposal ID: 2 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Energy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]