TMX Full Utilization: Pipeline to Asia

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Revenue-neutral

Fiscal Impact

Short-term (0–2 years)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 21

Continuum Entry

Overview

TMX expansion to full 1200 kbpd capacity unlocks Asian market access for Alberta bitumen. Chain: TMX -> oil_export_volume -> energy_exports_to_us -> exports_to_us/alberta_gdp. Also: TMX -> WCS_discount(-0.3) -> alberta_resource_revenue. Reduces price discount that costs Alberta billions.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 21). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Energy | Proposal ID: 64 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Energy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]