TMX Pipeline at Full Capacity: 95%

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

$-7.60B CAD

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

-$46.6B CAD

7 variables affected across the causal graph

Projected Return

N/A

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)$15.0B CAD

Direct Program Expenses$15.0B CAD

Fiscal Room (Capacity for New Spending)$15.0B CAD

Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)$1.6B CAD

Business Investment Growth+$20M CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Immediate (weeks–months)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 45

Continuum Entry

Overview

Trans Mountain expansion reaches full operational capacity at 95% utilization. Chain: tmx_capacity_utilization -> western_canadian_select_discount (-0.40, d1). Higher pipeline throughput narrows the WCS-WTI price spread that has cost Alberta billions in stranded value.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 45). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Energy | Proposal ID: 110 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Energy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]