Canadian Permanent Prosperity Fund

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

$8.00B CAD

Fiscal Impact

Long-term (5+ years)

Time Horizon

Low–Medium

Implementation Risk

Epoch 100

Continuum Entry

Overview

Establish a federal sovereign wealth fund — the Canadian Permanent Prosperity Fund — seeded with 40% of annual federal resource royalties, carbon revenues, and resource-sector corporate taxes, invested in a globally diversified portfolio. Returns distributed as: 50% to deficit reduction, 30% retained for compounding, 20% to a Canadian Future Generations Account accessible only for nationally designated crisis or intergenerational investment. The Norway counterfactual is the founding argument: had this fund existed since 1976, its balance today would be ~$1,847B CAD.

Problem Statement

Norway and Canada both discovered major petroleum wealth in the 1970s. Norway established the Government Pension Fund Global in 1990, mandated 100% of petroleum revenues into it, and now holds ~$1.7 trillion USD for 5.4 million citizens. Canada — with greater natural resource wealth per capita — has a federal sovereign wealth fund balance of exactly $0. Alberta established the Heritage Fund in 1976 with similar intent but successive governments systematically withdrew the principal and suspended contributions. The result: Alberta has $23.4B today instead of an estimated $400B+ if Norway-style discipline had been applied. The Federal government never even started. The norway_counterfactual_swf_balance variable — $1,847B — is what structural discipline versus structural consumption looks like over 50 years.

Proposed Approach

Establish CPPF via legislation with constitutional-equivalent protection (requires supermajority to amend contribution mandate or withdraw principal). Year 1: seed with $8B from existing resource revenue streams. Ongoing: 40% of annual federal petroleum royalties (~$6-9B/year), carbon pricing revenues above the federal rebate commitment (~$2-4B/year), and resource-sector corporate tax receipts (~$3-5B/year). Investment mandate: CPPIB-style globally diversified portfolio, Canadian content floor of 25%. Independent board. Annual public reporting. Principal withdrawal requires 2/3 parliamentary approval + Finance Minister certification of national emergency. No exceptions for election cycles.

Anticipated Impacts

federal_sovereign_wealth_fund_balance grows from $0 to $18-24B by Year 5, $85-120B by Year 15; swf_annual_investment_return begins at ~$0.8B/year, grows to $5-8B/year by Year 15; federal_debt trajectory improved as 50% of returns applied to deficit reduction; intergenerational_impact_score improves from 65 to 72-78 as debt-per-child trajectory reverses; norway_counterfactual_swf_balance remains fixed at $1,847B — the reference against which all progress is measured and the reminder of what structural discipline creates over time.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 100). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Fiscal Policy | Proposal ID: 193 | Series: E-series

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Fiscal Policy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]