CUSMA Partial Suspension: Trade Uncertainty

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

$5.00B CAD

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

+$753.4B CAD

1 variables affected across the causal graph

Projected Return

151:1

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Alberta Budget Surplus+$753.4B CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Immediate (weeks–months)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 11

Continuum Entry

Overview

The US threatens CUSMA withdrawal over dispute panels. Partial suspension of trade agreement creates massive uncertainty for auto sector, integrated supply chains, and cross-border investment. Not full collapse, but chilling effect.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 11). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Trade | Proposal ID: 41 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Trade. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]