Export Diversification Accelerator

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

$-3.20B CAD

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

-$5.4B CAD

5 variables affected across the causal graph

Projected Return

N/A

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Quebec Own-Source Revenue$1.8B CAD

Manitoba Other Revenue$1.2B CAD

New Brunswick Other Revenue$977M CAD

Nova Scotia Other Revenue$977M CAD

PEI Own-Source Revenue$366M CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Short-term (0–2 years)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 3

Continuum Entry

Overview

Fast-tracked CPTPP trade routes, EU-CETA utilization push, and critical minerals export deals with Japan and South Korea partially offset US export losses. Energy export infrastructure (LNG Canada, TMX) redirects volume to Asian markets.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 3). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Trade | Proposal ID: 33 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Trade. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]