Softwood Lumber Resolution: Duty Cut

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

$1.80B CAD

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

-$127.4B CAD

13 variables affected across the causal graph

Projected Return

N/A

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)$150.0B CAD

Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)+$18.0B CAD

Infrastructure Spending+$4.0B CAD

Public Debt Charges (Interest)+$720M CAD

Business Investment Growth$216M CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Immediate (weeks–months)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 45

Continuum Entry

Overview

Negotiated resolution of Canada-US softwood lumber dispute reduces duties from 45% to 15%. Chain: softwood_lumber_duty_rate -> softwood_lumber_exports (-0.40, d1). BC and Quebec lumber producers see immediate export relief. Students see how trade disputes suppress bilateral flows.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 45). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Trade | Proposal ID: 109 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Trade. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]