Softwood Lumber Resolution: Duty Cut

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Revenue-neutral

Fiscal Impact

Immediate (weeks–months)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 45

Continuum Entry

Overview

Negotiated resolution of Canada-US softwood lumber dispute reduces duties from 45% to 15%. Chain: softwood_lumber_duty_rate -> softwood_lumber_exports (-0.40, d1). BC and Quebec lumber producers see immediate export relief. Students see how trade disputes suppress bilateral flows.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 45). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Trade | Proposal ID: 109 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Trade. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]