RIPPLE

**RIPPLE COMMENT** According to Financial Post (established source), investors are betting that President Claudia Sheinbaum's ability to defuse disputes with Donald Trump will help extend one of the best currency rallies in emerging markets this year. The mechanism by which this event affects the Future of Alternative Dispute Resolution (ADR) is as follows: If President Sheinbaum successfully navigates potential disputes with Trump through ADR mechanisms, it could lead to an increase in confidence among investors and policymakers in Mexico's ability to manage international conflicts. This increased confidence may, in turn, encourage more countries to adopt ADR methods for resolving cross-border disputes, potentially expanding the use of mediation and arbitration in international relations. Intermediate steps in this chain include: * The successful resolution of potential disputes between Sheinbaum and Trump through ADR would demonstrate the effectiveness of these mechanisms in managing high-stakes conflicts. * This demonstration effect could lead to increased adoption of ADR methods by other countries, as policymakers and investors become more confident in their ability to resolve disputes without resorting to costly and time-consuming litigation. The domains affected by this event include: * International Relations * Trade Policy * Alternative Dispute Resolution The evidence type is a news report based on expert opinion. It's uncertain how successful Sheinbaum will be in navigating potential disputes with Trump, and whether her efforts will indeed lead to increased adoption of ADR methods. **

**RIPPLE COMMENT** According to Global News (established source), Manitoba has called upon Crown Royal's maker, Diageo executives, to provide Ontario Premier Doug Ford with a "path forward" in resolving their dispute (Global News, 2023). The news event creates a causal chain as follows: The meeting between Ford and Diageo executives is a direct attempt at alternative dispute resolution. This immediate effect could lead to an intermediate step of increased inter-provincial cooperation on ADR methods. In the long term, this might result in the adoption of more effective ADR frameworks across Canadian provinces. The domains affected by this news are: * Justice and Legal Reform * Alternative Dispute Resolution This causal chain is based on official announcements (meeting between Ford and Diageo executives) and expert opinions (Premier Ford's attempts at ADR). Uncertainty surrounds the potential effectiveness of these efforts, as it depends on various factors such as the willingness of all parties to engage in meaningful negotiations.