The Issue
Independence advocates point to Alberta's high GDP and net contributor status. But what would the economics actually look like?
Potential Benefits
- Retained federal tax revenue (~$50-70B annually)
- Full resource control
- Regulatory freedom
Costs and Challenges
- Share of national debt: $140-150 billion
- Building new state institutions: $10-20B annually
- Trade and market access uncertainty
- Capital flight during transition
What Studies Show
Pro-independence estimates: Net benefit of $20B+ annually. Mainstream economists: Net cost of $5-15B annually in early years, significant transition costs.
Key Variables
Outcome depends on: trade agreement terms, oil prices, speed of separation, international recognition, currency choice, debt division terms.