Softwood Lumber & Agriculture Shield
âš This is a flightplan, not a commitment.
Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the
Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted
into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation
model outputs, not real-world outcomes.
Fiscal & Economic Impact
Implementation Cost
$-16.30B CAD
Direct government spending
Projected Economic Impact
-$32.6B CAD
55 variables affected across the causal graph
Projected Return
N/A
Economic return per dollar spent
Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)
Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)$44.5B CAD
Nominal GDP+$2.6B CAD
Federal Revenues+$2.0B CAD
Goods and Services Tax (GST)+$1.6B CAD
Canada Health Transfer (CHT)+$1.5B CAD
Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.
Short-term (0–2 years)
Time Horizon
Not assessed
Implementation Risk
Overview
Emergency domestic procurement mandates for Canadian lumber in federal housing programs, plus agricultural export insurance and Asian market trade missions to offset US tariff exposure on softwood and agriculture.
Ducklings Simulation
This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 3).
The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with
strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop
limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.
Domain: Trade |
Proposal ID: 38 |
Series: Continuum
How to Engage
Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Trade.
Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects
with real-world implementation tracking.
Contact: [email protected]
