Oil Supercycle: WTI $95

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Revenue-neutral

Fiscal Impact

Immediate (weeks–months)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 33

Continuum Entry

Overview

OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risk push WTI 27% higher to $95/bbl. Chain: oil_price_wti -> alberta_bitumen_royalties (+1.2, immediate) + sask_oil_gas_revenue (+0.8, immediate) + oil_export_volume (immediate) + energy_exports_to_us (d1) + alberta_gdp (d1) + newfoundland_gdp (immediate) + calgary_commercial_tax (d2) + alberta_energy_employment (d2) + oil_sands_operating_cost (d2). Canada as petrostate: the oil boom ripples through the West.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 33). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Energy | Proposal ID: 83 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Energy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]