CDK
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Ducklings Continuum Proposal
Epoch 33 Continuum Energy Immediate (weeks–months)
In Simulation

Oil Supercycle: WTI $95

âš  This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost
$3.00B CAD
Direct government spending
Projected Economic Impact
+$282.9B CAD
79 variables affected across the causal graph
Projected Return
94:1
Economic return per dollar spent
Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)
New Brunswick HST Revenue+$34.1B CAD
Nova Scotia HST Revenue+$34.1B CAD
PEI HST Revenue (Provincial Portion)+$34.1B CAD
Atlantic Canada GDP+$29.1B CAD
PEI Own-Source Revenue+$26.5B CAD
Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.
Immediate (weeks–months)
Time Horizon
Not assessed
Implementation Risk
Epoch 33
Continuum Entry

Overview

OPEC+ cuts and geopolitical risk push WTI 27% higher to $95/bbl. Chain: oil_price_wti -> alberta_bitumen_royalties (+1.2, immediate) + sask_oil_gas_revenue (+0.8, immediate) + oil_export_volume (immediate) + energy_exports_to_us (d1) + alberta_gdp (d1) + newfoundland_gdp (immediate) + calgary_commercial_tax (d2) + alberta_energy_employment (d2) + oil_sands_operating_cost (d2). Canada as petrostate: the oil boom ripples through the West.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 33). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Energy  |  Proposal ID: 83  |  Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Energy. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]