Interprovincial Trade Barrier Reduction

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

Fiscal & Economic Impact

Implementation Cost

$0.60B CAD

Direct government spending

Projected Economic Impact

-$87.6B CAD

15 variables affected across the causal graph

Projected Return

N/A

Economic return per dollar spent

Top Cascade Effects (click to expand)

Budgetary Balance (Deficit/Surplus)$100.0B CAD

Federal Debt (Accumulated Deficit)+$12.0B CAD

Public Debt Charges (Interest)+$480M CAD

Business Investment Growth$144M CAD

Direct Program Expenses+$100M CAD

Impact figures are simulation model outputs from the Ducklings causal engine (BFS cascade, 3-hop depth, strength-weighted edges). They represent projected effects, not real-world outcomes.

Medium-term (2–5 years)

Time Horizon

Not assessed

Implementation Risk

Epoch 45

Continuum Entry

Overview

Internal trade reform: mutual recognition agreements, harmonized product standards, and elimination of provincial procurement barriers. Chain: trade_barrier_cost_index -> trade_barrier_gdp_cost (p0.9, immediate) + labour_mobility_index (n0.4, immediate) + interprovincial_trade_volume (n0.4, d4) + nominal_gdp (n0.03, d8). Also: product_standards_harmonization -> trade_barrier_cost_index (n0.3, d4). Two levers reinforcing each other.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 45). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Governance | Proposal ID: 106 | Series: Continuum

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Governance. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]