Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

$4.20B CAD

Fiscal Impact

Long-term (5+ years)

Time Horizon

Medium

Implementation Risk

Epoch 95

Continuum Entry

Overview

Mandate rising domestic content requirements for all federal defence contracts, establishing a $4.2B Canadian Defence Innovation Fund and export licensing reform to build a sovereign defence industrial base. Target: 65% domestic content in defence procurement by Year 7, reducing capital outflow from $7.95B to under $4.5B annually.

Problem Statement

Canada directs 75% of its defence procurement budget ($7.95B/year) to foreign contractors under offset arrangements returning less than 7 cents per dollar in Canadian industrial activity. The F-35 contract yields a 6.1% industrial return ratio. Canada has 586 defence firms generating $14.3B in revenue but remains entirely a tier-2 supplier ecosystem with no sovereign platform design-and-build capability.

Proposed Approach

Establish the Canadian Sovereign Defence Industrial Act with three pillars: (1) Domestic Content Mandate — all contracts over $50M must achieve 30% Canadian content rising to 65% by Year 7; (2) Canadian Defence Innovation Fund — $4.2B equity co-investment in drone platforms, autonomous maritime systems, Arctic mobility, and sovereign satellite communications; (3) Export Licensing Reform — fast-track approval for NATO/Five Eyes allied sales.

Anticipated Impacts

defence_industrial_domestic_share rises from 25% to 45-55%; defence_capital_retained_domestic rises from $2.65B to $6.8-8.4B; defence_export_revenue rises from $2.8B to $5.5-8.0B by Year 5; canadian_defence_industry_revenue rises from $14.3B to $24-32B by Year 8; nato_contribution_pct rises from 1.37% to 1.9-2.3%.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 95). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: National Defence | Proposal ID: 184 | Series: E-series

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under National Defence. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]