National Food Security Reserve Act

⚠ This is a flightplan, not a commitment. Flightplans are hypothetical policy proposals modelled in the Ducklings causal simulation. They become projects only when voted into adoption through Consensus. Metrics shown reflect simulation model outputs, not real-world outcomes.

$1.20B CAD

Fiscal Impact

Medium-term (2–5 years)

Time Horizon

Low–Medium

Implementation Risk

Epoch 106

Continuum Entry

Overview

Establishes a National Food Security Reserve of 90 days of essential food supply for key commodities, distributed regionally to reduce single-point-of-failure risk. Addresses the food_supply_concentration_risk created by processing oligopoly — Cargill High River processes 40% of Canadian beef from a single facility. A pandemic, natural disaster, or labour disruption at a concentrated processing node is a national food security event.

Problem Statement

national_food_reserve_weeks is 0 — Canada has no strategic food reserve. food_supply_concentration_risk is 0.71. The Cargill High River COVID outbreak in 2020 infected 900+ workers, killed 2, and disrupted 40% of Canadian beef processing from a single facility. The workforce vulnerability and the supply concentration risk are the same problem: employer-tied TFW permits created a workforce that could not isolate safely, in a facility processing nearly half of national beef supply. The US maintains a 3-month grain reserve. The EU maintains 90-day reserves for key commodities. Canada has nothing.

Proposed Approach

RESERVE STRUCTURE: 90-day supply of: grains and flour, dairy products, canned protein, cooking oils, root vegetables, infant formula. Distributed across 13 regional depots — no single depot holds more than 15% of any commodity. PROCUREMENT: Reserve restocked through CCFN procurement pipeline, prioritizing Canadian producers. Rotation system ensures reserve is consumed and replenished rather than stored to spoilage. CONCENTRATION RISK TRIGGER: Any single processing facility handling more than 25% of a national commodity category triggers mandatory reserve increase for that category and Competition Bureau review of processing sector concentration. INDIGENOUS FOOD SOVEREIGNTY: Reserve allocation includes traditional and country foods in partnership with Indigenous communities in remote areas.

Anticipated Impacts

national_food_reserve_weeks rises from 0 to 12 (90 days); food_supply_concentration_risk falls from 0.71 as reserve reduces single-facility dependency; rural_food_access_index improves in remote communities; food_insecurity_rate falls in communities currently experiencing supply disruption events.

Ducklings Simulation

This proposal is active in the Ducklings causal simulation (Epoch 106). The simulation models downstream effects using a BFS cascade engine with strength-weighted, time-delayed edges capped at 3-hop depth and ±25% per-hop limits. Cascade outputs are bounded by variable saturation thresholds.

Domain: Food Security | Proposal ID: 224 | Series: F-series

How to Engage

Discuss this flightplan in the Pond forum under Food Security. Vote on adoption through Consensus. Adopted flightplans become projects with real-world implementation tracking.

Contact: [email protected]