Fighter Jet Replacement Program: Canada's Prolonged Quest for New Combat Aircraft
The replacement of Canada's CF-18 Hornet fighter aircraft has been one of the most protracted and politically contentious procurement programs in Canadian defense history. Originally expected to deliver new aircraft years ago, the program experienced false starts, political reversals, and extended timelines before finally selecting the F-35 in 2022. Understanding this program illuminates both the challenges of major military procurement and the political dynamics that shape Canadian defense decisions.
The CF-18 Fleet
Canada acquired CF-18 Hornet aircraft in the 1980s, with deliveries completing in 1988. These fourth-generation fighters have served as Canada's primary combat aircraft for nearly four decades, participating in operations from the Gulf War through Libya and Iraq-Syria interventions.
The original fleet of 138 aircraft has diminished through attrition to approximately 76 operational aircraft. Upgrades have extended service life and improved capabilities, but the fundamental platform design dates to the 1970s. Maintaining operational relevance against advancing threats requires capability that aging aircraft cannot provide indefinitely.
The CF-18 fleet was initially expected to require replacement by approximately 2020. Extensions through upgrade programs and reduced operational tempo have enabled continued service, but the aircraft are operating well beyond originally anticipated service lives.
The Long Road to Replacement
Serious consideration of CF-18 replacement began in the early 2000s. Canada participated as a development partner in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, contributing approximately $550 million to development and positioning Canadian industry for production participation.
The Harper government announced in 2010 that Canada would acquire 65 F-35 aircraft through sole-source procurement, citing the partnership arrangement and the aircraft's capabilities as justification for not conducting open competition. This announcement proved premature.
Cost estimate controversies erupted when the Auditor General challenged government figures, finding that full life-cycle costs significantly exceeded announced numbers. The Parliamentary Budget Officer's independent assessment further complicated the picture. These controversies stalled the program and contributed to political difficulties.
The Liberal government elected in 2015 had promised during the campaign not to purchase the F-35, creating policy constraints that required alternative approaches. The government launched an open competition while also acquiring interim capability through purchase of used Australian F-18 aircraft.
The Competition
The Future Fighter Capability Project launched a competition to evaluate fighter options including the F-35, Boeing's F/A-18 Super Hornet, and the Saab Gripen. This competition assessed aircraft against requirements developed through defense policy review.
The Super Hornet's participation became complicated by trade disputes between Boeing and Bombardier over the C-Series aircraft. Canadian government displeasure with Boeing's trade actions effectively eliminated the Super Hornet from serious consideration, though it technically remained in competition.
Saab's Gripen offered a less expensive option but represented a smaller industrial base and different partnership relationships than North American alternatives. The aircraft's capabilities, while significant, did not match the F-35's fifth-generation features.
In March 2022, the government announced selection of the F-35, essentially returning to the aircraft originally proposed a decade earlier after extensive political controversy and extended process.
The F-35 Selection
The F-35 Lightning II represents the fifth-generation fighter that most allied air forces are adopting. Its stealth characteristics, sensor fusion, and network-enabled capabilities provide advantages that fourth-generation aircraft cannot match regardless of upgrades.
Canada's selection aligns with allies including the United States, United Kingdom, Australia, and numerous European nations. This commonality enables interoperability in coalition operations and access to shared logistics and support infrastructure.
The contract for 88 F-35 aircraft, more than the 65 originally announced, reflects updated assessments of fleet size requirements. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2026, with fleet completion taking years thereafter.
Cost and Industrial Benefits
The estimated cost of the F-35 acquisition is approximately $19 billion for the aircraft themselves, with additional billions for infrastructure, training, and sustainment. Total program costs over the aircraft's service life will be substantially higher.
Industrial benefits arrangements are expected to generate Canadian economic activity proportional to contract value. Canadian companies have participated in F-35 production since the development partnership began, with additional opportunities through the acquisition contract.
Sustainment arrangements will affect long-term costs and Canadian industrial participation. How maintenance, repair, and overhaul work is distributed between Canadian facilities and the broader F-35 global sustainment system matters for both cost and industrial impact.
Capability Implications
The F-35 will provide capability significantly beyond the CF-18. Fifth-generation features including stealth, advanced sensors, and network connectivity enable operations that legacy aircraft cannot perform. This capability improvement matters for both NORAD missions and expeditionary operations alongside allies.
However, fighter aircraft are only one element of air power. Supporting infrastructure, trained personnel, weapons, and operational concepts all affect what capability the new aircraft will actually provide. Investment in aircraft without corresponding investment in enablers would produce less capability than the platform could deliver.
The interim period until F-35 delivery completes leaves capability gaps that the aging CF-18 fleet and interim Australian aircraft must address. Managing this transition while maintaining operational relevance presents challenges.
Lessons and Implications
The fighter replacement program's extended timeline offers lessons about Canadian defense procurement. Political controversy can stall programs regardless of military merit. Campaign promises constrain subsequent policy options. Process requirements extend timelines beyond what military need would indicate.
The ultimate selection of the F-35, the aircraft originally proposed, after a decade of delay and alternative exploration suggests that options were more limited than political controversy implied. Whether the competitive process added value beyond the delay it caused is debatable.
For future major procurements, the fighter replacement experience suggests that political consensus on military requirements, insulation from trade disputes, and realistic assessment of alternatives would improve outcomes.
Conclusion
The fighter jet replacement program's prolonged history reflects the complexity of major military procurement in democratic societies where political considerations inevitably shape defense decisions. The F-35 selection provides the Royal Canadian Air Force with a capable platform that will serve for decades. Whether the extended process that led to this outcome served Canadian interests, or merely delayed acquisition of capability that military requirements indicated was needed, remains contested. The program's lessons should inform future major procurements, though whether they will is uncertain.