The Zombie Homeowner: How Canada Traded a Housing Crash for a Decade of Economic Paralysis
The Mortgage Renewal Wall (2026-2027)
Approximately $400 billion in residential mortgages — 60% of all outstanding Canadian mortgage debt — will hit renewal by the end of 2026. The most exposed tranche: ~$250B originated in 2021 at sub-2% rates, now renewing into a 4.5-5.0% environment. That's a 250-300 basis point shock.
An adversarial simulation using the RIPPLE causal graph tested what happens when this wall hits — and found something unexpected.